Economic Policy

The Unbalanced Loan: Ending Indexation by Building a Fairer Mortgage

This article discusses the systemic risks in Iceland’s mortgage market, particularly focusing on the unfair distribution of risks between borrowers and lenders. It argues for a redesign of the mortgage system, advocating for a shift from indexed loans to a structure similar to Denmark’s model, which fairly allocates risks and promotes financial stability for households.

Balance scale holding a one-euro coin and an Iceland map

The Bill That Never Stops Coming

This article analyzes the financial implications of Iceland’s potential EU membership, revealing a significant disparity in estimated costs, ranging from 7 to nearly 50 billion krónur annually. It argues that Iceland would primarily be a net contributor, funding the development of poorer EU nations, and emphasizes the permanency and associated burdens of such a commitment.

Geothermal power plant in Iceland with digital operational data overlays and snowy mountains in background

Building a Stronger Economy: The Role of Technology in Iceland

This piece discusses Iceland’s economic challenges and the importance of maintaining monetary sovereignty. It argues that technology can drive competitiveness and absorb inflation pressures, offering a buffer for high-margin businesses. The author emphasizes the need for structural reforms to deepen domestic capital markets to retain successful companies and build a resilient economy.

Commemorative coin with penguin and snowflakes underwater in Antarctic sea

Understanding Inflation’s Impact on Icelandic Competitiveness

The seventh piece of a series on Iceland’s economy discusses how full inflation indexation prevents anyone from bearing the cost of inflation, ultimately eroding national competitiveness. As Icelandic prices rise compared to global alternatives, many Icelanders perceive Europe as a cheaper option. The solution proposed is dismantling the indexation system to restore balance.

Icelandic Parliament building with warm lights and Icelandic flag on a wet street at dusk

The True Cost of Adopting the Euro for Iceland’s Economy

The Icelandic government commissioned a report on currency options ahead of a referendum, revealing that while the króna is volatile, it absorbs rare shocks more effectively than previously acknowledged. The report identifies a critical competitiveness issue driven by rising wages. It emphasizes domestic reforms as essential, regardless of currency choices, highlighting that true stability relies on addressing internal economic structures.

City street with colorful buildings, wet roads, people with umbrellas, and misty mountains behind

Iceland’s Inflation Battle: Ending Indexation and Restoring Stability

This piece outlines a phased plan to abolish verðtrygging in Iceland, interlinked with combating inflation. It highlights how current indexed mortgages disconnect from central bank policies, leading to persistent inflation. The proposed approach involves first ceasing new indexed loans to restore monetary policy effectiveness, followed by gradual conversion once inflation is under control.

A Loan, Not a Gift: On the Prime Minister, the Euro, and the Promise of Lower Interest Rates

This analysis critiques Iceland’s Prime Minister’s arguments for EU membership regarding monetary sovereignty. It emphasizes that historical examples show joining the euro could lead to lower initial interest rates but also hidden risks, mispricing, and inflation issues. The author advocates for domestic reforms instead of abandoning currency sovereignty.

How Fishing Fee Changes Affect Iceland’s Economy

Iceland’s sweeping fishing fee reform marks a historic shift in how the nation manages its marine resources. By linking fees to international market prices, the policy promises a surge in government revenue but poses serious risks to industry profitability, rural livelihoods, and investment incentives. With coastal communities bearing the brunt and innovation budgets under pressure, the stakes extend far beyond taxation. This blog unpacks the economic, political, and environmental dimensions of the reform—and what it could mean for the future of Iceland’s fishing industry and national identity.