I have been following this link, which is basically all the press citation of Nicholas Nassim Taleb, based on which I have created another link which basically has the following search term:
Nicholas Taleb OR Dr.Nouriel Roubini OR Jim Rogers
Ok, these are the only three guys who are saying that things are going to get worse before they get better but we still need to do certain things before we see a recovery. I think and the authors above agree that the Stock Market is celebrating prematurely and we are going to see another downturn before things start to recover, maybe by 2010 or 2011. The biggest problem is the dollar and the pending assets in the Real Estate market that is going to hit main street in the next couple of quarters.
here is a figure comparing Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Credit Spreads and Deliquencies, Spreads are high, deliquencies are low…
good indicator that the worst is yet to come. It has not come because of the bail out the banks who hold these instruments have basically locked the box and thrown the key, however they cannot keep at that level for a prolonged period of time as the Economy goes through a slow down. For crying out loud the unemployment rate in the US is 8.9% and the earning season is not giving any cheer as no one knows how bad it is going to get.